Thoughts On Job And Industry Stability

Dear Import/Export Compliance Manager,

It seems that the days of stable employment have gone the way of the cassette tape.  I would like to have a safe career where I can stay in my position as long as I am productive.  Is import/export compliance a good field to go into?

Loyal in Little Rock

Dear Loyal,

The short answer to your question is that import/export compliance is a field that is safer than most and is definitely a good field to get into.  International trade is only going to increase, U.S. export and import policies and tariffs can change on the whim of a single person and the laws are not going to go anywhere, despite the number of free trade agreements that are signed (in fact, they can increase the amount of work related to import/export compliance). 

Let’s dig a little deeper though, shall we?  Below are the biggest threats, in no particular order, the Import/Export Compliance Manager perceives for those working in import/export compliance jobs in a corporate environment:

1. Downsizing

2. Outsourcing

3. Technological Advancement

4. Regulatory Changes

5. Acquisition

6. Mergers

Downsizing.  Obviously, this can be a game of luck based upon the success of the company you are employed by.  Import/Export Compliance Departments can indeed be caught in a round of layoffs, particularly at companies where layoffs are simply a fact of life.  Import/export compliance personnel, having a compliance function that does not necessarily see its workload reduced when sales are reduced, is a little safer than most other departments but not enough to feel overly special.

Outsourcing.  This is a definite risk for Specialists at large companies, particularly those performing repeatable tasks such as classification and document filing.  Many firms exist to perform these tasks at a perceived lower cost to your employer and, with international communication being so cheap, this trend only seems to be increasing. 

Technological Advancements.  It’s difficult to state with any certainty how difficult this may make for import/export compliance personnel.  However, in an age where so many people are being replaced by computer programs, regardless of whether the work product is downgraded or not, who is to say what comes next?  The Import/Export Compliance Manager’s guess is that the main threat from Technological Advancements is to repeatable Specialist-level work.  For example, there are tools to automate classification.

Regulatory Changes.  The Import/Export Compliance Manager is of the opinion that the more changes there are to the regulations, the more import/export compliance people will be needed to help interpret and comply with them.  The only exception would be the creation of new geopolitical blocs such as the European Union, something that the Import/Export Compliance Manager is unaware of happening anytime soon.  Free trade agreements do not geopolitical blocs make.

Acquisitions.  Ah, another threat.  When one company acquires another, one of the main challenges the acquiring company has is to properly absorb the acquired company’s operations without busting budgets.  A major way to minimize cost is through economies of scale, meaning the use of larger resources in the acquiring company to eliminate similar functions in the company being acquired.  Import/export compliance is known as a ‘shared service’, akin to IT, Legal and Finance, in that it supports internal customers.  If the acquiring company has an existing Import/Export Compliance Department, your days may be numbered, regardless of your job performance and other factors in your favor.

Mergers.  The same risk applies to mergers as acquisitions.  Don’t be fooled by the term ‘merger of equals’; usually one company is dominant over the other.  Hint: watch which company’s CEO becomes head of the new company.

Now Loyal, if you want the ultimate stereotypical safest job, go into academia, specifically at a public university.  At this time, the Import/Export Compliance Manager feels that universities are, on aggregate, 10-15 years behind industry when it comes to having drunk the import/export compliance kool-aid.  So not only are universities usually hiring, but at public universities you typically will get stronger employee protections that come with working in government.  Sure, the pay is usually lower than industry, but you get the job protection and hopefully strong benefits.  For example, the state of Texas provides a pension after five years of service and completely paid-for health insurance after ten.  There can be chicanery that occurs in government but it remains a much safer bet than industry with regard to job security.  Also, universities may be more open to hiring remote workers, particularly those located in metro areas without a strong pool of import/export compliance professionals.

So again, the answer to the question of whether the field of import/export compliance is a good one to get into is an unequivocal ‘yes’, with jobs at public universities typically being the safest.  Good luck!